Steeling For A Fight

We break into coverage of the Dem convo for this special House bulletin. In what was to be the headliner of the FL primary matchups, Pittsburgh Steelers heir/atty Tom Rooney (R) appears to have snuck by two other GOPers to win the right to face vulnerable freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL 16). With 100% of the precincts reporting, Rooney leads state Rep. Gayle Harrell (R) and Palm Beach Gardens Councilor Hal Valeche (R), 37-35-28%. He leads Harrell by just under 1K votes.

But what turned out to be the real story was the near-defeat of Orlando-based Rep. Ric Keller (R-FL 08), who squeaked by radio talk show host/atty Todd Long (R), 53-47%. Despite Keller’s very large war chest, Keller and Long both spent about the same amount of cash in the primary (Keller: $450K, Long: $342K). And Keller was sufficiently worried about Long’s challenge that he sent a mailer to voters that featured Long’s mugshot and a copy of a police report from a drunk-driving arrest. The Orlando Sentinel also reported that the mailer included information that “didn’t result in an arrest,” but was sufficiently embarrassing. In ‘07, a police officer “found Long sleeping on the sidewalk” near a Tallahassee high school just after 5 a.m.

At the time, that attack seemed a bit much, but it may have provided the margin of victory for Keller in this low-turnout election. Keller will face atty/’06 candidate Alan Grayson (D) in the fall. Grayson, who invested $850K of his own cash into his primary bid, may give Keller a run for his money, if the primary tells us anything about Keller’s vulnerability.

In FL-16, Rooney was the establishment favorite in the three-way race, and rode Gov. Charlie Crist’s (R) and others endorsements to a victory. The conservative base split their support among all of the candidates, and none could claim to be the favorite of social conservatives, whose support is key in low-turnout affairs.

Valeche attacked Rooney and Harrell the hardest, saying both were insufficiently pro-life. But in the end, Rooney and Valeche were the main attractions, with Valeche relegated to the sidelines. Rooney will now take Mahoney, who appeared to be one of the weakest incumbents earlier in the cycle, but now has the upper hand in a race where Rooney will need to quickly refill his coffers if he wants to make this a contest.(TIM SAHD)

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